There is no longer any doubt that the thermometer will rise in France. The consequences of global warming could also be dramatic according to new models produced by Météo France and the Pierre Simon Laplace institute. Three scenarios were developed for the turn of the century. The worst forecasts predict heat waves five to ten times greater by 2100 and periods of severe heat that could last a month or two in the southeastern quarter of the country. Drought episodes could increase from 30 to 50 % depending on the scenarios.
According to Météo France, the history of global warming is already written up to the middle of the century. Temperatures will rise due to greenhouse gases already stored in the atmosphere. According to experts, warming from the pre-industrial era is already approaching a degree e “ all the observations collected on a planetary scale confirm an unprecedented acceleration of climate change “, remembers Virginie Schwarz in the introduction to the report quoted by the newspaper The world.
At the national level, in the three scenarios studied, warming is contained by about one degree up to 2040. The trajectories then diverge sharply. If the increase stabilizes around +1 ° C in a controlled emissions scenario, the increase reaches on average + 2.2 ° C in the intermediate scenario and rises to +3.9 ° C on average (and + 4, 5 ° C in the worst) emission scenario.
Snow could only be a distant memory
The all-time records recorded during the summer 2019 heat wave – with 46 degrees in the south of France – could therefore often be surpassed, with an increase in average summer temperatures of six degrees. In the worst case scenario, the heat waves would be multiplied by ten.
Even in the case of controlled emissions, the number of days of heat waves (more than five consecutive days at more than 5 ° C above average) could double. As for “ tropical nights “, where the temperature does not drop below 20 ° C, the researchers predict that in the worst-case scenario at the end of the century, “ only the mountainous areas and the coast of the Channel remain practically intact, while the increase reaches 90 days in the most exposed areas “.
The report also reveals that winter frost and snow could become memories. The regionalized projections show an increase in the average annual temperature of up to 6 ° C in some areas of the Alps and the Pyrenees.
In light of this publication, environmentalists like Cyril Dion have urged the government to raise the ambitions of the Climate Law, which will be presented to the Council of Ministers on February 10 and debated at the National Assembly in March.
The latter is not up to the climate challenges according to members of the Economic, Social and Environmental Council. They remembered that at the end of January “ France is not on planned trajectories to reduce its national emissions and carbon footprint, both in terms of international commitments and national targets “.
🚨 In 🇫🇷 the t ° can increase by 3.9 ° C in 2070-2100 compared to 1976-2005 and up to + 6 ° C in summer in case of GHG uncontrolled. According to new projections by@Meteo France. A real climate law@EmmanuelMacronOther than that, you need to know more. ? https://t.co/SnAFw64kvg
– Cyril Dion (@cdion) February 1, 2021
- Source: Reporter
- Photo: Pixabay